Key Insights At National Level
Nationwide, year-over-year home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties were basically flat in May 2023 from a year ago, at +0.1%.
However, the recent month-over-month trends continue to tell a different story. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home values went up 1.2% in May 2023, adding to the 1.9% increase in April and 1.2% in March. The latest month-over-month reading though does suggest some cooling down of the recent home price appreciation trends.
Home values nationwide have now recouped most of the losses since the June 2022 market peak, being down just 1.3% through the end of May 2023. On the other hand, high interest rates and low inventory levels are not budging, staying stubbornly close to decade long records and adding even more pressure on home buying affordability.
Valuation Model Datasheet
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, the picture hasn’t changed much lately. Basically, most of the Western states and the District of Columbia (DC) continue to show year-over-year home value decreases beyond -5%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, most states continued to register price increases in May 2023. However, the pace of home value appreciation seems to be slower than in the previous two months. Only four states exceeded 2% monthly home value increases in May 2023, compared to almost half of the states in April.
About half of all states have recouped their losses from the June 2022 market peak through the end of May 2023. Arizona, Idaho and Nevada continue to experience heavy home value depreciations of around -10% since the summer of 2022.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, more than half of the top 50 CBSA markets are still in negative territory, with top decliners including San Francisco (CA), San Jose (CA), Phoenix (AZ), Sacramento (CA), Las Vegas (NV), Austin (TX) and Seattle (WA). At the other end, Miami (FL) is still one of the top performers at +4.4% but a far cry from the +31.3% year-over-year record registered just a year ago.
On a non-seasonally adjusted monthly basis, all top 50 markets exhibited price appreciation in May 2023, except for Phoenix (AZ). Strong monthly gains of +2% were recorded in Milwaukee (WI), Grand Rapids (MI), Chicago (IL), Boston (MA), Cincinnati (OH), Philadelphia (PA), Columbus (OH) and Hartford (CT).
As noticed at the other geography levels, the pace of home value appreciation in the latest month seems to be tapering off across most of the markets as we enter the traditionally heavy summer season, which is against most seasonal trends. For instance, the median monthly home value change among the top 50 CBSA markets moved from +2% in April to +1.2% in May.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. That allows TerraIndex™ HPI to provide the most current market insights, being weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
About Quantarium
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.
For business inquiries, please contact us at 424.210.8847 or discover@quantarium.com.
